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The Way The Strange Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Formula.
Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.
However the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.
Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.
Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.
In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!
Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.
Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.
After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.
Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
Margaret Crane
A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about exploring the latest innovations and sharing practical lifestyle advice.
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