Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."

• Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.